There's an 80% Chance that it's Already Reigning

The art of forecasting the forecast.

For me, February is my January.

While others are tuning into themselves, sobering up, and going ‘dry’.

I am tuning out, bursting at the seams, and living life very very ‘wet’. January is my season finale. It’s the culmination of all my traumas, joys, and acquired pieces (or lack thereof), wrapped up like a final parade celebrating another solar return.

So yeah, January is when I wrap things up. February? When I turn things up. Or in this case, turn back up. I suppose it’s been a while. But don’t worry about where I’ve been, just join me for where I’m going. Like right now… I’m going to chat a little bit about a topic that’s been cooking at the apex of my brain all January.

There’s no beating around the bush—we’re facing a pandem-ick. On one hand, we are being inundated with video after video of 2025 trend predictions, yet in the same breath, we express deep, somewhat sedated, rage over the ever-cyclical trend cycle that continues to move at breakneck speeds. I tend to shy away from these trend prediction videos because I don’t necessarily shop to fulfill a ‘trend need’ in my closet (though that’s not to say that my closet does not benefit from a trend being at the forefront of pop (small p) culture), but I think really what people should be looking at or having a better understanding of is not trend predictions, but fashion forecasting.

Wahhh, Devi, wahh, aren’t those the same things?

In some ways, they could be seen as the same, but in my humblest of opinions, I don’t think so. I think that the trend predictions that we’re used to believing for being so on the ‘nose’ about calling a future trend are often the ones that at least site a little bit of research analysis in the videos (like spikes in searched terms, percentage of pieces on a runway and such).

So why is fashion forecasting important though? Well, when you start to understand that it’s not actually the influencers, stylists, or even the permanent A-through-D listers, who are the driving forces in a lot of these things we see, like, and follow in terms of fads, then you’re really able to pull yourself out of the trends and allow yourself to see the big pictures of what’s going on in fashion. The girlies that get it aren’t psychic, they just do their research.

So think of it this way: brands have a lovely little rolodex of items, right? Different styles and SKUs that speak to their hopefully wide and diverse group of consumers. And every (couple of) season(s), a brand puts its faith behind one of those items—their golden child, if you will—and with said faith, their marketing dollars. And that’s the machine we’re all too used to seeing without really acknowledging.

For example, everyone who is alive today is familiar with the German giant that is Adidas, and if you don’t own a pair, then someone you love does. Adidas has reigned supreme in footwear these last few seasons, with their Sambas scooping the leaderboard position, with collaborations and colorway after colorway as evidence of that success.

But as people say, what goes up must inevitably come down, and its because of that very reason that seemed to catapult it into the early 2020s lexicon— the total and absolute saturation of them everywhere— that they will have their fall from grace. I mean, how many times can one look down at their feet and see 4 other people in the same pair of trainers? How many Wales Bonner collaborations can you have until we are all Bonnered out (still stan for Grace btw)? We are fickle creatures after all.

But don’t fear, because Adidas has long clocked this trajectory, and it’s at this point that brands will slowly start to pull that marketing dollar away to reallocate elsewhere. It’s the circle of life. And because Adidas is Adidas, they have a gamut of very famous pieces, that have done very very well for the brand. Before the Sambas and Gazelles of today, there were the Superstars and (I shudder to recall) Stan Smiths of yesteryear. Those were the days of the all-white shoes. And just like now, the shoppers of before shopped and wore those shoes ad nauseam (guilty) until cultural consciousness ultimately shifted attention.

Given the Samba fatigue, I had an inkling that Adidas was trialing some interest around the Superstars again because I saw these little pushes and collaborations (did you notice this too?) I was a stout Superstar lover, so maybe I clocked it where others might not have. However, I don’t think the fashion pendulum has swung far enough yet for people at mass to get back on board with chunky shoes. So this is where consumer feedback (sales, interests, etc.) comes into play.

Cue, the Adidas Rasants. The latest push from Adidas has seemingly arisen out of nowhere, but is everywhere, all at once. A style totally different from where we were, but in some ways the same, or at least similar enough to tap into the adjacent markets. Thinner, sleeker, weirder. But still cool enough to garner a Stella McCartney collaboration at the top of fashion month.

So now, this decision by Adidas is reinforced by their marketing dollars, which can be seen in the mass movement to ship all these pieces out to talent and influencers (who I don’t mean to discredit), to well, start influencing. At the end of the day, they are the people who create these micro visions that the brand has already imagined for their pieces (hence why they’re tapped in the first place). We can only hope that brands have got the range for activations like these.

So in short, chat, I wanna know, are you gonna hold tight to those trend prediction videos? There’s something to be said about them, for sure, especially if you can get past the sort of regurgitation of some of the videos. So watch them if you like. And while you watch them, I implore you to see where people are pulling things from. Ask questions. Look up your references. Debate. You’ll soon start to discern the source of what you like, and might actually want to fill your closet with. Promise.

Happy dressing, chickadees.
xx